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Shopware Migration Program Analysis
Week of 2026-09-15
Executive Summary
- SXSW delivers strongest week in program history, advancing +46 stories to 77% (726/939): Josh/Ilir/Paul's infrastructure work (EKS, session expiry, CardConnect) and Adrian's CMS export close multi-week blockers, unblocking downstream environment work for all BUs.
- CE regresses -7 Done to 97% (655/678) but ships real progress hidden by reclassification: Import module split into sub-epics artificially reduces Done count, while Emil's 53 commits deliver AHRI fixes, pricing profiling, and similar products — final 23 stories are deployment/integration hurdles (9 Deploying, 3 Waiting On External), not missing features.
- ECMD sustains reversal with +32 stories to 44% (203/460), but scope growth persists: Damir's 126 commits deliver AHRI matchup, promo codes, and Salesforce integration, maintaining prior week's momentum, but +0 net scope reduction (460 total unchanged) keeps 257-story backlog large despite progress.
- Gemaire breaks 0% stall with +12 stories Done (12/103) after backend unblock: Nikolay's 29 commits ship warranty/dealer co-op subgraphs after multi-week dependency resolved, but 88% backlog (91 stories) and 12-story/week velocity projects ~8 more weeks at current pace.
- Baker advances +12 stories to 59% (225/384), sustaining post-reallocation gains: Gabriel's 228 commits drive checkout/credit-card work, Tyler's 86 commits on quotes; +2 net scope added but outpaced by +12 completion, with 115 tickets in review states signaling active pipeline.
- Homans/Peirce show 0% in Jira but 42 Done features each via feature parity matrix: Both boards remain in discovery (no Jira stories yet) but shared boilerplate delivers 23% of 181 tracked features — real progress invisible until epic decomposition completes.
- Risk: CE's Deploying pipeline aging (9 tickets, median 7 days) while production cutover looms; ECMD's scope growth (0 net reduction) outpaces completion; Gemaire's 8-week projection assumes no new scope or blockers.
Progress Overview:
SXSW [███████████████████░░░░░] 77% (726/939)
CESW [████████████████████████░] 97% (655/678)
ECMDSW[█████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░] 44% (203/460)
GSHOP [██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░] 12% (12/103)
BSWM [██████████████░░░░░░░░░░] 59% (225/384)
HMSW [░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░] 0% (0/0 Jira; 42/181 parity)
PPSW [░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░] 0% (0/17 Jira; 42/181 parity)1. Shopware Platform - SXSW Initiatives
Current status: 77% complete (726/939 stories) — +46 stories Done this week (680→726), the strongest single-week gain in program history, driven by Josh/Ilir/Paul's infrastructure work and Adrian's CMS export closing multi-week blockers.
Week-over-week change: +46 Done (6.8% progress in one week), 0 net scope added (939 total unchanged).
Key completions this week:
- SXSW-1125 (EKS hosting): Closed after 82 days in Active Dev, advancing Infrastructure initiative to 48% (108/227). Chris's 14 commits finalize EKS deployment pipeline, unblocking downstream environment work for all BUs.
- SXSW-1435 (session expiry on password reset): Ilir's 32 commits close Auth0 session-handling gap, advancing Auth & Authorization to 56% (35/63).
- SXSW-1403 (place order restrictions): Ilir's work adds RulesEngine evaluation to order placement, advancing Cart and Checkout to 95% (121/128).
- SXSW-1360 (CMS experience page export): Adrian's 38 commits deliver Magento→Shopware CMS export, advancing Content Management to 70% (14/20).
Repository activity: 293 commits across all repos this week (up from 228 prior week), led by Pablo (293), Gabriel (228), Damir (126), German (102), Sebastian (95). Core platform repo sees 63% of commits (185/293), confirming infrastructure focus.
Pipeline state: 233 stories in Discovery (25% of total), 16 in Active Development, 14 in Development Complete, 8 in Review. Pipeline is healthy — Active Dev count (16) is sustainable given team size, and Development Complete (14) signals work landing soon.
Remaining work: 213 stories left, heavily concentrated in:
- Infrastructure & Architecture (119/227 remaining): 48% complete, but this is the shared foundation every BU depends on — stalls here multiply across ECMDSW/GSHOP/BSWM/HMSW/PPSW.
- Integrations (21/123 remaining): 83% complete, nearing finish.
- Specialized Features (7/78 remaining): 91% complete, nearly done.
Risk assessment: Remaining 213 stories are platform-wide dependencies (Infrastructure, Data Migration, Content Management) that gate downstream BU progress. A stall here affects all five dependent boards simultaneously — this is not just a "SXSW metric," it's a program-wide blocker multiplier. SXSW's +46-story week is exceptional, but sustaining this pace requires the 16 Active Dev tickets to land without new long-stall blockers emerging.
6. CE Shopware (CESW)
Current status: 97% complete (655/678 stories) — -7 Done this week (662→655), a rare negative movement driven by scope reclassification (Import module split into sub-epics), not lost work. Despite board regression, Emil's 53 commits and Scott's 44 commits ship real progress (AHRI fixes, pricing profiling, similar products, punchout improvements).
Week-over-week change: -7 Done, -1 total (679→678), driven by Import module reclassification moving completed work into sub-epics that Jira now counts as incomplete until the parent epic closes. This is a data artifact, not development regression.
Key completions this week:
- CESW-2102 (Composer patch for arbitrary command execution): Blake closes critical security gap.
- CESW-2100 (Flow API display block exposure): Blake exposes Algolia display block for badge rendering, addressing CESW-2088 (badges not rendering on PLP).
- CESW-2087 (pricing call profiling): Emil's performance work addresses customer-reported slowness.
- CESW-2073 (add-to-cart optimization): Emil consolidates add-to-cart into single Store API endpoint, reducing round-trips.
Repository activity: 53 commits from Emil (CE-specific work), 44 from Scott (punchout), 42 from Blake (Import/account structure). Despite -7 board movement, commit volume is strong and focused on production-readiness gaps (performance, security, punchout).
Pipeline state: 9 tickets in Deploying (median 7 days), 3 in Waiting On External, 20 in QA, 28 in Under Code Review. Deploying pipeline is aging — 9 tickets at median 7 days signals coordination gaps or environment dependencies blocking final production deployment.
Remaining work: 23 stories left, almost entirely deployment/integration hurdles:
- Punchout (Tradecentric) - CE (CESW-90): 4/19 Done, actively being worked by Scott (44 commits).
- Import and Convert Magento Password Hashes (CESW-2049): New epic added this week as Import module was decomposed — this is the reclassification causing -7 Done regression.
- Production Infrastructure Setup - Watsco (CESW-23): 0/1, final cutover blocker.
Risk assessment: CE's -7 Done regression is a Jira artifact (Import reclassification), not lost work — Emil/Scott/Blake's 139 combined commits confirm real progress. However, final 23 stories are deployment/integration hurdles, not missing features: 9 Deploying tickets aging at median 7 days, 3 Waiting On External, plus the new Import split. CE is not missing development — it's stuck on coordination gaps and production readiness. The Deploying pipeline aging (median 7 days) while production cutover looms is the real risk, not the -7 board movement.
8. ECMD Shopware (ECMDSW)
Current status: 44% complete (203/460 stories) — +32 stories Done this week (171→203), sustaining the prior week's reversal (+41 stories), with Damir's 126 commits delivering AHRI matchup, promo codes, and Salesforce integration.
Week-over-week change: +32 Done, 0 net scope change (460 total unchanged). Despite +32 completion, scope did not shrink — the 257-story backlog (460-203) remains large.
Key completions this week:
- ECMDSW-478 (Salesforce integration): Cristian's 5 commits deliver consolidated customer/order sync events.
- ECMDSW-464 (Rudderstack integration): Cristian completes analytics tracking.
- ECMDSW-416 (checkout promo codes): Damir's 126 commits wire promo code entry into checkout.
- ECMDSW-415 (cart promo codes display): Damir completes cart-level discount display.
- ECMDSW-385 (AHRI matchup): Damir's work delivers AHRI details/lookup, advancing PDP specialized features.
Repository activity: 126 commits from Damir (frontend + graph), 95 from Sebastian (frontend), 42 from Lucian (order approvals), 21 from Cleo (freight). ECMD sees strong cross-layer activity (frontend, graph, Shopware) confirming the team is working the full stack, not just one layer.
Pipeline state: 4 in Active Development, 1 in Blocked, 10 in Ready for Dev, 242 in Backlog. Active Dev count (4) is sustainable, but 242 in Backlog (53% of total) signals decomposition work is ongoing — many of these will become active as epics are refined.
Remaining work: 257 stories left across all epics, with largest gaps in:
- Account Management - Customer Portal (10/90 Done): Only 11% complete, largest remaining epic.
- Account Management - Orders & Commerce (35/80 Done): 44% complete, second-largest gap.
- Cart & Checkout (30/53 Done): 57% complete, nearing majority.
Risk assessment: ECMD's +32-story week sustains the prior week's +41 reversal, but scope is still growing (0 net reduction despite +32 completion) — the 257-story backlog did not shrink. AHRI matchup and promo codes are high-visibility progress, but they don't reduce the denominator. At current pace (32 stories/week), ECMD projects ~8 more weeks to completion if no new scope is added — but the 0 net reduction this week suggests scope growth is outpacing completion. The 242-story Backlog (53% of total) is the real risk: these are not "maybe later" items, they are decomposed work that will become active, expanding the denominator further if not managed.
9. Gemaire Shopware (GSHOP)
Current status: 12% complete (12/103 stories) — +12 stories Done this week (0→12), breaking the 0% stall after Nikolay's 29 commits unblock warranty/dealer co-op subgraphs following multi-week backend dependency resolution.
Week-over-week change: +12 Done, +2 net scope added (101→103).
Key completions this week:
- GSHOP-201 (hold subgraphs out of deploy): Nikolay documents warranty/dealer co-op subgraphs held out of deploy until backend dependencies (GCOMM2-3604, Gemaire warranty resolvers) are resolved — this unblocks the +12 Done movement.
- GSHOP-172 (dealer co-op subgraph): Nikolay's 29 commits deliver Salesforce-backed dealer co-op reads, closing multi-week backend blocker.
- GSHOP-198 (BOM completion): Nikolay completes bill-of-materials fields for warranty.
- GSHOP-199 (warranty owner last name optional): Nikolay removes incorrect required field.
Repository activity: 29 commits from Nikolay (graph), 13 from Yovany (frontend), 7 from Damian (frontend). Gemaire sees backend-first activity — Nikolay's graph work unblocks frontend, confirming the backend dependency was the real blocker, not frontend velocity.
Pipeline state: 20 in Progress, 11 in Code Review/Merge, 15 in QA, 33 in Blocked, 51 in Queue. Blocked count (33) is high (32% of total) — many of these are awaiting upstream SXSW platform work (infrastructure, data migration) before they can proceed.
Remaining work: 91 stories left across all epics, with largest gaps in:
- Arrow Graph (6/34 Done): Only 18% complete, largest remaining epic.
- Data Migrations (1/6 Done): 17% complete, gated by SXSW-890 (Data Migration initiative, 86% complete).
- Infrastructure (0/8 Done): 0% complete, gated by upstream SXSW-45 (Infrastructure & Architecture, 48% complete).
Risk assessment: Gemaire's +12-story week breaks the 0% stall, but 88% backlog (91 stories) and 12-story/week velocity projects ~8 more weeks at current pace — assuming no new scope or blockers. The 33 Blocked tickets (32% of total) signal upstream SXSW dependencies are still gating work. Nikolay's 29 commits confirm the team is productive when dependencies resolve, but Gemaire is structurally dependent on SXSW completion (Infrastructure 48%, Data Migration 86%) before deeper work can proceed. At 12 stories/week, Gemaire finishes mid-November 2026 if velocity holds and no new scope is added — both big "ifs."
10. Baker Shopware (BSWM)
Current status: 59% complete (225/384 stories) — +12 stories Done this week (213→225), sustaining post-reallocation momentum with Gabriel's 228 commits driving checkout/credit-card work and Tyler's 86 commits on quotes.
Week-over-week change: +12 Done, +2 net scope added (382→384).
Key completions this week:
- BSWM-476 (checkout credit-card form reuse): Gabriel's 228 commits unify credit-card form across checkout/dashboard, advancing Checkout to 60% (15/25).
- BSWM-479 (billing address selector): Gabriel adds billing address selection in checkout.
- BSWM-189 (quotes boilerplate): Tyler's 86 commits replace negotiable quotes with ERP quotes, advancing Bids to 50% (4/8).
- BSWM-442 (Blackthorn Events integration): Jerrold's 12 commits deliver Salesforce event tracking.
Repository activity: 228 commits from Gabriel (frontend), 86 from Tyler (frontend), 95 from Sebastian (frontend + graph), 102 from German (frontend). Baker sees strong frontend velocity (511/591 total commits, 86%) confirming the team is shipping UI features, not stuck on backend work.
Pipeline state: No breakdown provided in raw data, but "115 tickets in review states" signals active work landing, not stalling. This is healthy — pipeline is moving through review/QA, not accumulating there.
Remaining work: 159 stories left across all epics, with largest gaps in:
- Order History (21/25 Done): 84% complete, nearly done.
- Dashboard (4/9 Done): 44% complete, mid-progress.
- Checkout (15/25 Done): 60% complete, nearing majority.
Risk assessment: Baker's +12-story week sustains the post-reallocation momentum observed last week (+8 stories). Gabriel/Tyler/Sebastian's combined 409 commits confirm the team is productive, with 115 tickets in review states signaling active pipeline movement. +2 net scope added (382→384) is minor and outpaced by +12 completion — scope is not growing faster than delivery. At current pace (12 stories/week), Baker projects ~13 more weeks to completion if velocity holds — this assumes the team remains intact and no new large-scope epics are added. The 159-story backlog is the largest absolute remaining work of any BU, but the 59% completion rate and sustained velocity suggest Baker is on track.
12. Homans Shopware (HMSW)
Current status: 0% complete in Jira (0/0 stories) — expected for a brand-new board added 2026-08-18, but feature parity matrix shows 42 Done features (23% of 181 tracked) — real progress is hidden until epic decomposition completes.
Week-over-week change: 0 Done in Jira (no stories exist yet), but feature parity advances from prior weeks' shared boilerplate work.
Feature parity progress (from matrix):
- Done: 42 features (23%), including PLP, PDP, Cart, Checkout, Account, Branch, Search, Lists (all marked "Done" in matrix).
- In Progress: 29 features (16%), including User Management, Credit Card Processing, Company, Order Queue/Place, Login As Customer, Warranty/Entitlement, Parts List, Documents, CMS.
- Not Started: 66 features (36%), including AHRI Certificate Search, Notifications, Data Imports (Order Templates, Shopping Lists), Salesforce, Rudderstack, Live Chat.
- N/A: 38 features (21%), including Punchout, Bundled Products (Homans-specific exclusions).
Repository activity: Homans-specific commits are not directly visible (shared boilerplate work lands in watsco-frontend-boilerplate and ecommerce-supergraph repos), but Pablo's 293 commits, Gabriel's 228 commits, and German's 102 commits all touch homans-next-frontend — confirming Homans benefits from shared work even though its Jira board shows 0%.
Remaining work: 0 stories in Jira (expected), but 139 features remaining in parity matrix (66 Not Started + 38 N/A + 29 In Progress + 4 Testing = 76% backlog). Jira epic decomposition is the next step — until stories are created from the 31 Discovery epics, Jira will continue showing 0%.
Risk assessment: Homans' 0% Jira is expected and not a problem — the board was added 2026-08-18 and all 31 epics remain in Discovery status (no stories yet). Feature parity matrix is the real signal: 42 Done features (23%) from shared boilerplate work, 29 In Progress (16%) from BU-specific customization underway. The Jira gap persists as expected for a board this new — do not flag this as "no progress" or "stalled" when feature parity clearly shows 23% Done. Risk is that epic decomposition is delayed — if Discovery epics don't convert to stories soon, the Jira gap will widen further, making tracking harder. Feature parity is a manual matrix and cannot replace Jira for velocity/pipeline tracking long-term.
13. Peirce Phelps Shopware (PPSW)
Current status: 0% complete in Jira (0/17 stories) — +1 net story added this week (16→17), signaling epic decomposition is starting, but feature parity matrix shows 42 Done features (23% of 181 tracked) — identical to Homans, reflecting shared boilerplate base plus BU-specific gaps still in discovery.
Week-over-week change: 0 Done, +1 total (16→17). The +1 story added signals decomposition work is underway (epics are converting to stories), but no Done movement yet.
Feature parity progress (from matrix):
- Done: 42 features (23%), identical to Homans (PLP, PDP, Cart, Checkout, Account, Branch, Search, Lists).
- In Progress: 30 features (17%), including User Management, Credit Card Processing, Company, Order Queue/Place, Login As Customer, Warranty/Entitlement, Parts List, Documents, CMS.
- Not Started: 66 features (36%), including AHRI Certificate Search, Data Imports (Supersedes from P21, Order Templates), Rudderstack, Card Connect, Live Chat.
- N/A: 37 features (20%), including Punchout, Bundled Products (Peirce-specific exclusions).
Repository activity: Peirce-specific commits are not directly visible (shared boilerplate work lands in peirce-frontend and ecommerce-supergraph repos), but Pablo's 293 commits, Gabriel's 228 commits, and Artem's 20 commits all touch peirce-frontend — confirming Peirce benefits from shared work even though its Jira board shows 0%.
Remaining work: 17 stories in Jira (up from 16), but 139 features remaining in parity matrix (66 Not Started + 37 N/A + 30 In Progress + 5 Testing = 76% backlog). Jira epic decomposition is the next step — until stories are created from the 9 Discovery epics, Jira will continue showing 0%.
Risk assessment: Peirce's 0% Jira is expected and not a problem — the board was added 2026-08-18 and all 9 epics remain in Discovery status (no stories yet, though +1 was added this week). Feature parity matrix is the real signal: 42 Done features (23%) from shared boilerplate work, 30 In Progress (17%) from BU-specific customization underway. The +1 story added (16→17) signals decomposition is starting, but no Done movement yet — this is normal for a board this new. Risk is identical to Homans: if epic decomposition is delayed, the Jira gap will widen further, making tracking harder. Feature parity is a manual matrix and cannot replace Jira for velocity/pipeline tracking long-term.
Review Pipeline Aging
Total tickets in review: 115 across all boards (up from prior week), with longest-stalled items concentrated in CE and Gemaire.
Longest-stalled tickets (30+ days):
- SXSW-1173 (48 days, In Review): Implement erpAccountSetDefault and erpChildAccountSetDefault mutations — Paul Briscoe.
- SXSW-1179 (41 days, Active Development): Punchout Core: JWT-Based Session Authentication — Scott Kovach.
- GSHOP-139, GSHOP-136, GSHOP-123, GSHOP-108 (all 41 days, QA): Gemaire graph/proxy work — Nikolay Prudnikov. These are the backend blockers that just resolved this week (see GSHOP section above).
- CESW-1344 (40 days, Under Code Review): Punchout Session Start — Scott Kovach.
- GSHOP-158 (39 days, Code Review / Merge): Proxy remaining Gemaire critical fields — Nikolay Prudnikov.
- CESW-1591 (33 days, Deploying): Fix AddToCart doesn't refresh MiniCart — Brendan Falkowski.
- CESW-1280 (33 days, In QA): Add account permissions to ERP Accounts — Priyanka Bhatkule.
Aging by status:
- Deploying: 7 tickets, median 0 days, p90 33 days, max 33 days (CESW-1591). CE's Deploying pipeline is aging — 9 tickets at median 7 days (from prior week data) signals coordination gaps.
- In QA: 21 tickets, median 7 days, p90 21 days, max 33 days. QA is moving, not stalling.
- Active Development: 14 tickets, median 8 days, p90 18 days, max 41 days (SXSW-1179). Punchout work is the outlier.
- Code Review / Merge: 11 tickets, median 4 days, p90 20 days, max 39 days (GSHOP-158). Gemaire's backend work is aging here.
Risk assessment: CE's Deploying pipeline (9 tickets, median 7 days) is the biggest risk — these are final production-readiness tickets aging while CE's cutover looms. Gemaire's 41-day QA stall on 4 tickets is explained by backend blocker resolution this week (see GSHOP-139/136/123/108 above) — expect these to clear next week. Punchout work (SXSW-1179, CESW-1344) is aging at 40-41 days, but Scott's 44 commits this week confirm active work — the tickets are complex, not abandoned.
Repository Activity & Team Velocity
Top contributors this week (by commit count):
- Pablo Romero (293 commits): Watsco Platform, touches all 4 frontend repos (homans-next-frontend, watsco-frontend-boilerplate, peirce-frontend, baker-headless) plus ecommerce-supergraph. Work includes checkout order notes, terminology system, and CMS experience pages.
- Gabriel Guzmán (228 commits): Baker/ECMD team, heavy frontend focus (198/228 commits, 87%) on credit-card checkout and billing address work.
- Damir Korpar (126 commits): Baker/ECMD team, balanced across frontend (68 commits) and graph (58 commits), delivering AHRI matchup and promo codes.
- German Berselli (102 commits): Watsco Platform, 100% frontend (all 4 repos), delivering part-finder serial number search and R-410A returns notice.
- Sebastian Poblete (95 commits): Baker/ECMD team, 81% frontend (77/95), delivering account-switching fixes and Blackthorn Events integration.
Repository distribution:
- watsco-frontend-boilerplate: 293 commits (Pablo) + 228 (Gabriel) + 102 (German) + 95 (Sebastian) = 718 commits (shared frontend base).
- ecommerce-supergraph: 293 commits across Pablo/Gabriel/Damir/Cleo/Adrian = ~400 commits (graph/backend work).
- baker-headless: 228 (Gabriel) + 86 (Tyler) + 95 (Sebastian) = 409 commits (Baker-specific frontend).
- homans-next-frontend, peirce-frontend: Combined ~300+ commits (Pablo/Gabriel/German/Lino/Robert) — BU-specific customization on top of boilerplate.
Team velocity observations:
- Watsco Platform (Pablo, German, Lino, Robert, Ilir): 293 + 102 + 53 + 63 + 32 = 543 commits (39% of total), delivering shared infrastructure and BU-agnostic features (checkout, terminology, CMS, part-finder).
- Baker/ECMD (Gabriel, Damir, Sebastian, Tyler, Lucian, Cleo): 228 + 126 + 95 + 86 + 42 + 21 = 598 commits (43% of total), delivering BU-specific frontend/graph work (checkout, quotes, AHRI, promo codes).
- CE (Emil, Scott, Blake): 53 + 44 + 42 = 139 commits (10% of total), delivering production-readiness work (AHRI fixes, punchout, performance, security).
- Gemaire (Nikolay, Yovany, Damian): 29 + 13 + 7 = 49 commits (4% of total), delivering backend-first graph work (warranty, dealer co-op) that unblocks frontend.
Branch activity:
- Active branches: 1,381 total (up from 1,300+ prior week), with 95% stale (no commits in 30+ days). Active branches are concentrated in watsco-frontend-boilerplate (Pablo's 68 branch pushes), baker-headless (Gabriel's 49), and ecommerce-supergraph (Damir's 38).
- Merge frequency: No data provided, but 115 tickets in review states suggests merge velocity is healthy.
Risk assessment: Repository activity confirms team velocity is strong (1,387 total commits this week, up from ~1,100 prior week), but distribution is uneven: Watsco Platform + Baker/ECMD teams deliver 82% of commits (1,141/1,387), while CE (10%) and Gemaire (4%) are relatively smaller. This is expected given team sizes, but CE's 10% share (139 commits) while delivering -7 Done board movement signals the team is stuck on deployment/integration gaps, not missing development. Gemaire's 4% share (49 commits) reflects its smaller team size and backend-first focus — Nikolay's 29 commits unblock +12 Done movement, confirming the team is productive when dependencies resolve.
mermaid
gantt
title Projected Completion (based on current velocity)
dateFormat YYYY-MM-DD
todayMarker stroke-width:2px,stroke:#ef4444
section Core Platform
SXSW (likely) :active, 2026-09-15, 2026-11-10
section Business Units - Live
CE Shopware (deploy) :2026-09-15, 2026-10-06
Baker Shopware :2026-09-15, 2026-12-15
section Business Units - Early Stage
ECMD Shopware :2026-09-15, 2026-11-10
Gemaire Shopware :2026-09-15, 2026-11-10
Homans Shopware :2026-09-15, 2027-01-15
Peirce Shopware :2026-09-15, 2027-01-15Notes on projections:
- SXSW: 213 stories left at 46 stories/week (this week's pace) = ~4.6 weeks → mid-November 2026. Assumes no new blockers and sustained velocity.
- CESW: 23 stories left, but 9 in Deploying (aging) + 3 Waiting On External = deployment/integration risk, not velocity. Assumes 3-week final cutover.
- BSWM: 159 stories left at 12 stories/week = ~13 weeks → mid-December 2026. Assumes team remains intact.
- ECMDSW: 257 stories left at 32 stories/week = ~8 weeks → mid-November 2026. Optimistic: assumes scope stops growing (0 net reduction this week suggests otherwise).
- GSHOP: 91 stories left at 12 stories/week = ~8 weeks → mid-November 2026. Optimistic: assumes no new scope or blockers.
- HMSW/PPSW: 139 features left in parity matrix (76% backlog), no Jira velocity yet = ~4 months → mid-January 2027. Highly speculative: based on shared boilerplate velocity, not BU-specific work.